PV Magazine International intl_tech D1

发布：2026-06-10 · 事件：2026-06-10

The landscape for solar PV manufacturing in the United States is set to change radically from 2027 onwards, with the domestic sector moving from bystander-curiosity to manufacturing-scrutiny. This art...

The landscape for solar PV manufacturing in the United States is set to change radically from 2027 onwards, with the domestic sector moving from bystander-curiosity to manufacturing-scrutiny. This article explores how this transition has come about, why the existing analysis of the manufacturing space has been largely superficial until now, and what tracking a capital expenditure (capex) heavy manufacturing sector looks like in practice. The themes discussed form the basis of the newSolar Manufacturing USA 2026event in Austin, Texas on 22-23 September 2026 – the first event to be staged in the United States specific to domestic PV manufacturing investment, production, and related equipment and materials supply chains. Methodology to accurately track and analyse technology manufacturing sectors is well understood. My education here was founded about 15-20 years ago – a time when annual solar industry deployment was measured in the gigawatts range and market analysis in the sector was broadly confined to tracking technology variants and end-market demand. The PV industry at this time was dominated by research activities, with limited investments into ‘commercial’ mass production facilities, mainly from the early movers in Japan. Luckily, I was surrounded at the time (2005 to 2010) by some superb market analysts that were covering the semiconductor and flat panel display sectors. The scrutiny on detail here was incredible, but the stakes were much higher given the maturity of these sectors. In the semiconductor and flat panel industries, every capacity expansion phase, for any company at a given time, was dissected by process flow stage and tool type involved. In addition to providing phased production line ramp-up by quarter (sometimes even monthly), the focus on production tools and process flows then fed into a bottom-up analysis of capex and operating expenditure (opex) that I had never seen before. Critically also, this type of analysis generates the addressable markets on offer to equipment and materials suppliers, in addition to companies involved in new facility builds (for example, EPC contractors or specialist gas suppliers). The U.S. solar manufacturing space today is moving quickly to form a domestic manufacturing ecosystem. While the production equipment, coming from new capex, is still being served by tool makers from Asia and Europe, the materials demand – coming from raw materials supply for fab production – is being onshored as real hubs evolve today. Since we launched the newSolar Manufacturing USA 2026event – and outlined the scope of the event in terms ofcapex, opex and factory investments– it has been fascinating to see many domestic U.S. companies reach out to us, each looking at the new production landscape as a credible addressable market for newly created business units. Some of these questions have come from start-ups, for example pre-empting materials demand from a thriving ingot or cell production sector; others from business units within established materials companies that are household names. For both equipment and materials suppliers, the interest speaks volumes for the prospects of the solar manufacturing sector in the United States coming to fruition over the coming years. However, market commentary until now has not offered the types of answers these companies need to build up confidence to fully commit to the sector. Such market intel comes directly from the type of manufacturing rigor outlined earlier, by doing a bottom-up analysis of company-specific capex and technology/process-flow operations. To illustrate how this works, I now outline a couple of examples. One for capex, one for opex and related materials demand. My first activities as a PV market analyst were heavily grounded in capex studies. Capex is the most important leading indicator in the PV industry today, with only one other metric offering even greater visibility; equipment supplier book-to-bills. Anyone that has ever tracked semiconductor capital spending will know this all too well. Equipment supplier book-to-bill ratios can even forecast manufacturing cycles (upturns and downturns) 12-18 months out. Also, if the book-to-bill analysis is segmented further at the tool level, they can highlight technology shifts ahead of mass production metrics showing up. Nothing comes anywhere close to book-to-bill visibility in a capital-intensive manufacturing sector. Back in the day, before China dominated PV equipment supply, a select group of ‘Western’ tool makers provided all the equipment for the solar manufacturing segment. Moreover, at this time, company reporting from these (mostly listed) entities had tool bookings and revenues centre stage in investor calls and filings. A trip down memory lane during the 2012 to 2014 period when I routinely discussed PV equipment spending, forecasting the first PV manufacturing downturn at the time, shows how incredibly useful book-to-bill analyses of PV equipment suppliers can