PV Magazine International D/D1/国际能源技术 D1

发布：2026-06-05 · 事件：2026-06-05

Curtailment in Brazil could begin to ease towards the end of the decade as new transmission infrastructure comes online, according to Aurora Energy Research. Curtailment hit 21% in Brazil in 2025 and ...

Curtailment in Brazil could begin to ease towards the end of the decade as new transmission infrastructure comes online, according to Aurora Energy Research. Curtailment hit 21% in Brazil in 2025 and has become one of the main challenges facing the country’s electricity system. Aurora Energy Research has developed a nodal modeling framework focused on analyzing curtailment at the asset level. The model simulates the operation of Brazil’s electricity grid with hourly granularity, incorporating information on transmission infrastructure and electrical constraints. According to the company’s projections, curtailment levels are expected to remain high in the short and medium term. A more significant reduction is anticipated only toward the end of the 2020s, driven by transmission network expansion, growing electricity demand, and increased deployment of battery energy storage systems. The analysis indicates that curtailment could decline by 8 to 12 percentage points by 2030. The outcome will depend on factors such as the pace of transmission projects, renewable plant capacity factors, growth in distributed solar generation, battery adoption, and the expansion of new electricity loads, including data centers and electrolysis projects for hydrogen production. Rodrigo Borges, Aurora Energy Research’s Brazil Market Lead, commented that curtailment has quickly moved from being a secondary consideration to becoming one of the defining risks in Brazil’s energy market. “With this new asset-level modeling capability, we are providing investors and lenders with the transparency they need to properly assess risk, compare assets, and make capital allocation decisions with greater confidence in an increasingly complex system,” Borges said. Borges added that the nature of curtailment is expected to change during the 2030s, with curtailment caused by excess electricity supply becoming more prevalent and replacing transmission bottlenecks as the primary driver. Under this scenario, curtailment is likely to be distributed more evenly across generation assets. Batteries are also expected to contribute to reducing curtailment. According to Aurora’s modeling, their effects can be observed both locally, by alleviating constraints near project connection points, and at the system level, by helping balance electricity supply and demand. Aurora’s analysis adds that further detail can improve the assessment of risks related to curtailment, energy prices, and grid access, supporting investment decisions and project planning in the power sector. This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact:[email protected].